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As the current situation continues affecting energy prices, we would like to invite you to a new session to analyze the evolution of the energy prices in Spain. Join us today 11h00 to 11h30 CEST for a live review of our weekly report and explanation of the main price drivers. The conference will be held in Spanish.
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Demand dropped 14% compared to previous week, but the low wind generation prevented Daily Market price to continue its decrease trend.
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Global System Operation
The Spanish Daily Market weekly average price increased by EUR +2/MWh reaching EUR 21.7/MWh.
The low wind generation of this week prevented Daily Market price to drop, following electricity demand. Nevertheless, it was lower than 2018 and 2019 during the same week: 54% and 60%, respectively. This low price remained between 2016 price (EUR 21.1/MWh) and 2010 price (EUR 22.3/MWh), for the same week.
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Strong decrease by 13.7% of generation plus imports this week, reaching 3.61 TWh compared to the 4.11 TWh recorded the previous week. It has been the lowest weekly demand for any week of our data records (starting in 2014).
There were some significant changes in the mix this week, mostly due to the strong decrease of wind generation (-49%):
– Wind share decreased 12 pp.
– PV solar share increased 1 pp.
– Cogeneration & others share increased 1.3 pp.
– Gas share increased 3.4 pp.
– Hydraulic share increased 2.8 pp.
– Imports share increased 2.4 pp.
After the 2 GW nuclear production reduction of the previous week, nuclear generation remained steady around 5.7 GW the whole week, a 19% reduction compared to the usual 7 GW production.
For the second week in a row, gas generation remained surprisingly high during the whole week. Considering the available information by the time we write this report, it seems this large generation is due to extremely low MIBGAS price, and/or to possible activation of gas contracts take of pay clauses.
Compared to previous week, low pumping and exportations were needed this week, despite the extremely low demand.
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Generation Mix
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Variation
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Power range by energy sources vs demand
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Considering the low wind generation, hourly Daily Market prices showed relatively high volatility this week. They ranged from EUR 13.5/MWh on Sunday, set by renewables, to EUR 30.2/MWh on Monday, set by hydraulic.
The main technologies that set the price in the Iberian market were:
– Gas CC: 6% at EUR 20/MWh (previous week: 11% at EUR 20/MWh);
– Hydraulic: 42% at EUR 24/MWh (previous week: 34% at EUR 25/MWh);
– Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 30% at EUR 18/MWh (previous week: 42% at EUR 16/MWh);
– Coal: 5% at EUR 21/MWh (previous week: 2% at EUR 21/MWh);
The grid coupling has been:
– Spain-Portugal: 95%
– Spain-France: 8%
– SWE (SPA-POR-FRA): 7%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Daily and Intraday Market (DM and IM)
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Hourly detail of the generation in Spain
Wind plant factor decreased to a low level for this season: 13%.
The average solar photovoltaic plant factor slightly increased to 18% (17% the previous week): this is a medium level for this season.
On Wednesday, and for the first time ever, PV solar was the first source of electricity, during two hours.
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Generation by technology
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market
Financial markets seem to have priced in all the extraordinary economic measures taken by central Banks and governments to fight against the coronavirus impact on economy. And it also looks like they are considering a very optimistic scenario regarding the length and depth of the recession to come.
Something similar may have happened in the Spanish electricity futures market. Does it make sense that in the worst downturn of the Spanish economy in ages (our GDP will decrease in 2020 more than it did in the so called Great Recession 2008-2012) the short term power futures quote with a mere 5% discount vs the levels at which they were by the end of February? Even more, can it be explained that under the uncertainty of when and how the Spanish economy will recover, the cal 21 is quoting at the very same level it was by the end of February?
The power futures market is a financial market, let’s not forget that. Sentiment plays an important role. And last week it was positive indeed. Spanish power futures soared, amid a very strong volume until Wednesday, as did its 2 main drivers: Gas and EUAs. Q3 jumped almost 14% to EUR 36.9/MWh, whereas Q4 gained 9.2% to EUR 42.6/MWh. On the longer term, cal 21 was up 7% to EUR 42.9/MWh and cal 22 climbed 2.5% to EUR 43.2/MWh. On the commodities side, gas TTF month-ahead contract was up 6% from very low levels, and EUA gained 17% to its highest level in 4 weeks, over EUR 21/t. Gas remains and will remain low, so as soon as EUAs lose some ground (if they do), power futures will follow.
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Futures annual evolution
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