Results of the Portuguese solar tender are confusing because the bidding options and the pricing formulas were complex. Out of the awarded projects, just one will receive the published price, of EUR 11,14/MWh over the next 15 years. All the other published prices refer to more complex remuneration schemes.
Antuko has advised one of the awarded bidders and thus understands these remuneration schemes and can translate them into a more simple EUR/MWh price. In order to do so it is first fundamental to understand that apart from the project awarded at EUR 11,14/MWh, all the other projects will be exposed to the wholesale market (OMIE) and as so their expected revenues will depend on the long term solar captured price. So, in order to calculate a EUR/MWh price it is first necessary to commit to a long term projection of the solar captured price.
Using Antuko’s own projection of solar captured price, which hovers around EUR 35/MWh in average for the next 15 years, the Portuguese tender results would appear as follows:
- One extremely cheap stand alone solar project at EUR 11,14/MWh
- The rest of stand alone solar projects slightly below EUR 20/MWh
- Solar projects combined with storage between EUR 22 and 28/MWh
Seen in this way the results make much more sense and in the case of stand alone solar are in line with similar recent tenders observed around the world (EUR 20/MWh = USD 23,5/MWh). What is really new and surprising in this tender are the awarded prices of solar + storage: we now know that this combination makes financial sense below EUR 30/MWh !
The Portuguese tender is one extra step towards energy transition and the unstoppable penetration of renewable plants (solar and wind) all over the world. After years of subsidies (early 2000’s) renewables are now paying-back in big numbers: energy below EUR 30/MWh is welcome everywhere and strongly pushes electricity prices down, which is fantastic news for consumers.
Note: final official resultuts were not 100% published by Portuguese authorities as per writing this post.