1. Single project
The aim of this analysis is to estimate the expected distribution of future cash flows of a single generation unit. In order to perform this analysis multiple variables are taken into account:
- Volatility of the generation: wether the unit is conventional and subject to a maintenance schedule and failures, or wether it is non-conventional / renewable and subject to the availability of its ressource (water, wind, sun, other), Antuko computes a distribution of the expected production of the generation asset;
- Commercial strategy, and volatility of the energy sale prices: if the assets sells its production to the spot market price volatility is a major concern. If it sells its production via a PPA, the terms and conditions of the PPA need to be thoroughly analysed in order to understand the expected income. And in many cases single assets have a mixed commercial strategy, blending PPAs of different nature with a sale to the spot market, which makes it even more complex.
- System payments, like capacity, green certificates, and others also need to be taken into consideration in order to assess the expected cash flow
Antuko provides a detailed Excel model with hourly resolution that allows to deeply understand the business model of a particular power plant, and take sound investment decisions.
2. Portfolio of projects
The aim of this analysis is identical to the “single project” but adding the complexity of multiple generation units. Combining different technologies or energy sources, like PV Solar + Wind, or conventional + renewable, or renewable + storage is extremely complex since it requires the modeling of different generation curves, producing electricity at different hours of the day, and in different geographical regions where local nodal prices can be different.
Companies looking for this type of analysis are either:
- Independent Power Producers (IPP) wanting a fresh assessment of their generation portfolio in order to understand the expected distribution of their income and its expected volatility;
- Financial institutions repackaging the debt of a portfolio of assets, in order to issue a project-bond;
- An investor (IPP or Yieldco) assessing a portfolio of assets with the objective of issuing a purchase bid.
Antuko provides a clear analysis of the aggregated value of the portfolio of assets, its expected returns and their volatility.
3. Portfolio of projects & portfolio of consumers
This analysis is specifically designed for energy retailers which purchase energy from different technologies, in different geographical locations, and over different periods of time, and which sell energy to a variety of clients with different consumption curves, in different geographical locations, and over different perdidos of time.
This energy retailing activity can imply a substantial difference between what is purchased and what is sold, and this difference creates a risk which needs to be properly assessed.
Antuko applies a methodology used in financial markets to assess the value at risk (VaR) of large portfolios of financial assets, and adds a stochastic layer in order to represent the production profile of the generation assets.
The result is a multi dimensional report where all risks are clearly highlighted and quantified. This report is a key tool for managing energy portfolios: Antuko itself uses this tool in order to manage its energy trading activity in Chile and in Mexico.