Forecasting long term energy prices requires a perfect knowledge of all the dynamics and variables that affect a particular power market:
- Market rules and mechanisms;
- Existing generation assets, at a unit level, and knowledge of their operation dynamics (load curves, maintenance schemes, bidding strategies if any, etc.);
- Existing transmission grid and eventual interconnections with neighboring countries;
- Existing energy demand and understanding of its composition (residential, industrial, commercial, each with their own dynamics, seasonality, etc.);
- Projected expansion of the generation matrix, understanding the rationality behind it;
- Projected expansion of the transmission grid, local and interconnections;
- Projected evolution of the energy demand, taking into account all possible scenarios (storage, electric vehicles, energy efficiency measures, etc.);
- Projected prices of commodities and fuels;
- Understanding of climatic variables on the generation matrix: rainfall, wind, cloud coverage, temperatures.
Blending all these variables allows Antuko to build a dispatch model and anticipate the energy mix over the future, with an hourly resolution.
In markets where the members (sellers and purchasers of energy) are allowed to place offers for the volume and the price of the energy they are willing to trade, a fundamental approach alone is not enough. In those markets members use complex strategies in order to maximize profits on the generation side, and minimize purchasing costs ont the demand side. These strategies have no relation at all with a fundamental dispatch approach, but have more to do with trading or even gaming strategies, and they create a relevant distortion in the formation of energy prices.
In order to understand these strategies and assess how they affect the formation of energy prices, Antuko uses statistical, stochastic and machine-learning models that analyze the way market members place their offers depending on a wide set of variables (demande levels, spot prices, commodity prices, season, temperature, wind, etc.).
Combining these two approaches – Fundamental & Statistical – Antuko is able to deliver realistic energy prices forecasts.
Antuko has no hidden-agenda and no-bias in its projections: all the calculations are done with state of art tools and using all available knowledge.